America and Venezuela: Pressure, Migration, and Competing Narratives Around Maduro

Framing the dispute: America vs Venezuela

Relations between the United States and Venezuela have intensified as US President Donald Trump has described a strategy to “run” Venezuela “until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.” This posture comes in the context of a broader pressure campaign against the government of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration tying its actions to counternarcotics objectives, migration concerns, and security claims.

According to the account provided, US forces captured Maduro following strikes inside Venezuela. Maduro and his wife were brought to the United States, where he has been indicted on drug charges in New York. The events are presented as the culmination of escalating US measures since Trump began his second term in office last January.

What the US says it is trying to achieve

The Trump administration has repeatedly argued that its actions are aimed at stopping the flow of drugs—especially fentanyl and cocaine—into the United States and countering what it characterises as irregular warfare by alleged traffickers. Trump has also blamed Maduro for the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants in the US, in the context of an estimated eight million Venezuelans who have fled the country’s economic crisis and repression since 2013.

In addition, Trump has made allegations—without providing evidence—that Maduro was “emptying his prisons and insane asylums” and “forcing” inmates to migrate to the US. These claims sit alongside a broader political message from Trump that Maduro “is no friend of the US” and that it would be “smart for him to go.”

Designations, rewards, and the focus on criminal groups

As part of the pressure campaign, Trump designated two Venezuelan criminal groups—Tren de Aragua and Cartel de los Soles—as Foreign Terrorist Organisations (FTOs). He has alleged that Cartel de los Soles is led by Maduro himself. Analysts, however, have pointed out that Cartel de los Soles is not a hierarchical group but a term used to describe corrupt officials who have allowed cocaine to transit through Venezuela.

The US also doubled the reward for information leading to Maduro’s capture and announced that it would designate the Maduro government as an FTO. Maduro has vehemently denied being a cartel leader.

Strikes at sea and the debate over legality

In September, US forces began targeting vessels it accused of carrying drugs from South America to the US. The account states there have been more than 30 strikes on such vessels in the Caribbean and the Pacific since then, killing more than 110 people. The Trump administration argues it is involved in a non-international armed conflict with alleged drug traffickers.

Many legal experts, however, say the strikes are not against “lawful military targets.” The first attack on 2 September has drawn particular scrutiny because it involved two strikes, with survivors of the first hit reportedly killed in the second. A former chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Court told the BBC that the US military campaign more generally fell into the category of a planned, systematic attack against civilians during peacetime.

The White House response, as described, was that it acted in line with the laws of armed conflict to protect the US from cartels “trying to bring poison to our shores... destroying American lives.”

Covert operations and threats of land strikes

In October, Trump said he had authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations inside Venezuela. He also threatened strikes on land against what he described as “narco-terrorists.” He said the first such strike had been carried out on 24 December, describing it as targeting a “dock area” where boats alleged to carry drugs were being loaded, though he provided little detail.

Naval blockade, military deployments, and oil tankers

Financial pressure has also been central to the US approach. Trump declared a “total naval blockade” on all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. Oil is described as the main source of foreign revenue for the Maduro government.

The US has deployed 15,000 troops and a range of naval assets to the Caribbean, including aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and amphibious assault ships. Among the flotilla is the USS Gerald Ford, described as the world’s largest aircraft carrier. US helicopters reportedly took off from it before US forces seized an oil tanker off Venezuela on 10 December.

The US said the tanker had been “used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran,” while Venezuela described the action as an act of “international piracy.” Since then, the US has targeted two more tankers in waters off Venezuela. Trump said after Saturday’s strikes that the “American armada remains poised in position.”

How big is Venezuela’s role in drug trafficking?

Counternarcotic experts cited in the account say Venezuela is a relatively minor player in global drug trafficking, acting as a transit country through which drugs produced elsewhere are smuggled. Colombia is described as the world’s largest producer of cocaine, but most of it is thought to enter the US by other routes, not via Venezuela.

A US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) report from 2020 is cited as estimating that almost three quarters of the cocaine reaching the US is trafficked via the Pacific, with only a small percentage coming via fast boats in the Caribbean. While early strikes were mostly in the Caribbean, more recent ones have focused on the Pacific.

Trump has also highlighted fentanyl, describing targeted boats as being stacked with “bags of white powder” that is “mostly fentanyl and other drugs.” Fentanyl is described as 50 times more potent than heroin and as the main drug responsible for opioid overdose deaths in the US. On 15 December, Trump signed an executive order designating fentanyl as a “weapon of mass destruction,” arguing it was “closer to a chemical weapon than a narcotic.”

At the same time, the account notes that fentanyl is produced mainly in Mexico and reaches the US almost exclusively via land through its southern border. Venezuela is not mentioned as a country of origin for fentanyl smuggled into the US in the DEA’s 2025 National Drug Threat Assessment.

Venezuela’s internal politics and disputed legitimacy

Nicolás Maduro rose to prominence under the leadership of Hugo Chávez and the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV). Maduro, described as a former bus driver and union leader, succeeded Chávez and has been president since 2013. Over 26 years in power under Chávez and Maduro, the party is described as having gained control of key institutions including the National Assembly, much of the judiciary, and the electoral council.

In 2024, Maduro was declared winner of the presidential election, even though voting tallies collected by the opposition suggested its candidate, Edmundo González, had won by a landslide. González replaced the main opposition leader, María Corina Machado, on the ballot after she was barred from running for office. Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in October for “her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.” She later defied a travel ban to collect the award in Oslo and said she planned to return to Venezuela, which would put her at risk of arrest after authorities declared her a “fugitive.”

Oil: the recurring accusation and the official denial

Maduro has accused the Trump administration of using a “war on drugs” as an excuse to depose him and gain access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves. The account points to a remark Trump made after the US seized the first oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast: when asked what would happen with the tanker and its cargo, he said, “I assume we’re going to keep the oil.”

US officials have previously denied allegations that moves against Maduro’s government were an attempt to secure access to Venezuela’s untapped reserves.

Venezuela is described as having the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, with profits from the oil sector financing more than half of its government budget. However, exports have been hit by sanctions, a lack of investment, and mismanagement within the state-run oil company. In 2023, Venezuela produced only 0.8% of global crude oil, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The country currently exports about 900,000 barrels per day, and China is described as by far its biggest buyer.

Key points at a glance

• The US has escalated pressure on Maduro through strikes, vessel targeting, and a naval blockade tied to sanctioned oil shipments.
• Trump has linked the campaign to drugs and migration, including fentanyl and cocaine, and has made allegations about forced migration without providing evidence.
• Analysts and counternarcotic experts dispute parts of the trafficking narrative, describing Venezuela as a transit country and noting fentanyl’s main routes and origins.
• Legal experts have questioned the legality of maritime strikes, while the White House says it acted under the laws of armed conflict.
• Maduro denies cartel allegations and says the US is pursuing regime change for oil; US officials have denied that motive.