January Temperature and Precipitation Outlook: Where Cold, Warmth, Wet Weather and Dry Spells May Set Up

A split start to January

As January begins, the national outlook points to a divided pattern across the United States. Some regions may continue to experience winter-like cold, while others could be left waiting for a more traditional winter feel. Alongside the temperature outlook, precipitation signals suggest that certain corridors may trend wetter than average, while other areas lean dry.

This kind of contrast can shape everything from day-to-day comfort to travel plans and outdoor recreation. It can also influence how snow falls—whether it is powdery and dry, or wetter and slushier—and where storms are more likely to track.

Where below-average temperatures are favored

For parts of the East, the cold pattern that closed out the year may not let go quickly. The outlook favors below-average temperatures continuing into January for a large portion of the Northeast and the Great Lakes region. In addition, parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Upper Midwest are also included in the area where colder-than-average conditions are expected to persist.

The continuation of colder conditions is tied to the ongoing La Ni a. In this outlook, La Ni a is associated with the below-average temperature signal for these regions. However, there is also an indication that La Ni a may begin to lessen by the end of the month. If that happens, it could open the door for more above-average temperatures to return in the Northeast later in January.

Where above-average warmth is expected

While the Northeast, Great Lakes, and nearby areas may stay colder than average, the South and West are expected to lean warmer than average overall. The strongest area of above-average temperatures is forecast to stretch across much of the Rockies and extend into parts of Texas. Beyond that, above-average temperatures are expected across most of the South and West.

The Southeast may also trend above average, though the warmth there is not expected to be as pronounced as in the West. This means that, depending on location, some communities may experience a January that feels less like midwinter and more like an extended shoulder season.

What warmer conditions can mean for snow and winter recreation

Above-average temperatures do not automatically mean an absence of snow, especially in mountain regions. However, the outlook notes that warmer-than-average conditions can increase the odds of seeing wetter, slushier snow. For skiers and snowboarders, that can be a frustrating outcome compared with colder patterns that support lighter, drier snow.

In other words, the winter experience may vary significantly: some areas may be dealing with persistent cold, while others may see winter precipitation that falls in a wetter form or transitions more easily between rain and snow depending on elevation and timing.

Wetter signal for the Rockies and Southwest

On the precipitation side, the outlook places the Southwest in the bullseye for the most above-average precipitation expected across the Lower 48. The favored wetter area is described as stretching from Southern California to Colorado. In practical terms, that points to an increased likelihood of more rain and mountain snow in those areas.

This wetter signal also carries implications for the West Coast. The outlook notes that the region was already waterlogged after atmospheric rivers soaked the area and brought devastating flooding in December. Additional rain and mountain snow in the broader Southwest-to-Rockies zone could be unwelcome in places still dealing with the impacts of that earlier flooding.

For the Rockies, the combination of a warmer-than-average temperature signal and increased precipitation can also reinforce the possibility of wetter, slushier snow at times, rather than consistently cold, dry snowfall.

A narrow corridor of above-average precipitation from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic

Beyond the Southwest and Rockies, the outlook highlights a strip of slightly above-average precipitation extending from Nebraska to Texas, then eastward all the way to New Jersey. This corridor suggests a potential storm track or recurring pattern that favors more frequent precipitation events than average along that band.

Some locations within this corridor are dealing with long-standing drought, and the outlook indicates that the wetter-than-average signal may bring some improvements in that region. While the exact impacts can vary by event and by local conditions, a sustained period with more precipitation than average can be meaningful for areas that have been persistently dry.

Drier areas to the north and in the Southeast

The outlook also notes that the corridor of above-average precipitation is sandwiched between two drier swaths. One dry area is expected across the Northern Tier of the country, and another dry area is expected in the Southeast.

When drier-than-average conditions set up on either side of a wetter corridor, the result can be stark regional differences. Some areas may see repeated systems, while nearby regions see fewer opportunities for meaningful precipitation.

Key takeaways for January planning

• Colder-than-average conditions: Favored for the Northeast, Great Lakes, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Upper Midwest, with La Ni a linked to the pattern.
• Warmer-than-average conditions: Favored across much of the South and West, with the strongest warmth signal across most of the Rockies into parts of Texas; the Southeast may be somewhat above average as well.
• Wetter-than-average conditions: Favored from Southern California to Colorado, with the Southwest highlighted as a primary focus for above-average precipitation.
• Additional wetter corridor: A strip of slightly above-average precipitation from Nebraska to Texas and eastward to New Jersey, with potential drought improvement in some areas.
• Drier-than-average conditions: Favored across the Northern Tier and in the Southeast.

Looking ahead

Januarys outlook underscores how varied winter can be across the country. Some regions may continue to contend with persistent cold, while others see warmth that changes the character of winter precipitation. Meanwhile, precipitation patterns suggest both a wetter focus in the Southwest and Rockies and a narrow wetter corridor from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic, bordered by drier zones to the north and southeast. As the month progresses, any weakening of La Ni a later in January could also influence how temperatures evolve, particularly in the Northeast.