NOAA Adds “Conditional Intensity” to Convective Outlooks to Flag Potential for Extreme Severe Storms

A new layer of guidance for the most dangerous severe weather days

For decades, NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued Convective Outlooks that serve as an early signal that severe thunderstorms—capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes—may develop. These outlooks are widely used by emergency managers and other decision makers because they can provide critical lead time to prepare for severe weather.

What has been harder to communicate, however, is the difference between days when severe storms are possible and days when the atmosphere may support especially violent or extreme outcomes. In February 2026, that gap began to close with the addition of hazard severity information called Conditional Intensity. The goal is straightforward: allow forecasters to highlight areas where storms, if they occur, are more likely to be intense or violent.

“High-end severe weather like intense and violent tornadoes cause by far the greatest loss of life and property, and this improvement allows us to highlight days when these specific threats are more likely,” said Evan Bentley, Warning Coordination Meteorologist for NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center. “Now, even when the probability of a severe hazard is low but the intensity is high, we can convey that threat.”

What Convective Outlooks already do—and what Conditional Intensity adds

Convective Outlooks have long been designed to quantify the threat of severe weather in a given area. In practical terms, they help describe the expected coverage of hazards such as tornadoes, large hail, or severe wind—essentially, how many instances might occur within the outlined region.

Conditional Intensity adds another dimension. Instead of focusing only on how widespread severe weather might be, it highlights where the resulting hazards could be more extreme. That includes the potential for events such as violent tornadoes. The value is not simply academic: it is meant to improve how risk is understood and acted upon, particularly when the most destructive outcomes are possible.

This distinction matters because severe weather does not always present the same way. Some days produce many reports spread across a broad area, while other days may produce fewer storms overall but include one or two that are exceptionally intense. Traditional outlook information can communicate the first scenario well. Conditional Intensity is designed to better communicate the second.

Why “low probability” does not always mean “low impact”

One of the most important practical messages behind Conditional Intensity is that probability and impact do not always move in lockstep. A forecast can indicate a relatively low chance that severe weather will occur in a specific place, while also indicating that if storms do develop, they could be unusually destructive.

SPC’s description of the concept provides a clear example. A wind event anticipated to generate many reports—but few significant severe reports—could carry higher coverage probabilities while receiving a lower conditional intensity forecast. In other words, the event might be busy and widespread, but not necessarily dominated by the most extreme wind impacts.

Conversely, an event where only one or two high-end storms are anticipated could have lower coverage probabilities but a higher conditional intensity forecast. That combination suggests the atmosphere may not support widespread severe weather, yet any storms that do form could bring more extreme impacts.

This difference is vital for planning. Emergency managers, public safety agencies, and other decision makers often need to make choices about positioning resources and messaging risk. The ability to distinguish between “more likely to happen” and “more likely to be destructive if it happens” can influence how preparations are prioritized.

How Conditional Intensity is intended to support decisions

Severe weather preparation is not a single action; it is a chain of decisions that can begin days in advance. Convective Outlooks already help provide that early heads-up. Conditional Intensity is intended to refine it by helping users interpret the potential severity of hazards within the broader outlook.

SPC has emphasized that this guidance can be particularly important when the expected number of storms is not large, but the storms that do develop could carry higher-end threats. In those cases, a focus on coverage alone could understate the potential for major societal impacts. Conditional Intensity is meant to highlight areas of greatest concern for violent weather and the potential for higher impacts, improving the ability to differentiate between more and less destructive setups.

In practice, the addition can help communicate scenarios such as:

• Days when severe storms may be scattered, but the environment supports particularly intense hazards.
• Days when many severe reports are possible, but the most extreme outcomes are less likely.
• Situations where resource positioning and public messaging benefit from a clearer signal about potential severity, not just potential occurrence.

From research to operations: the path to the new outlook element

The idea of adding this level of detail did not appear overnight. SPC notes that the concept was first explored during the 2019 Spring Experiment at the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed in Norman, Oklahoma. During that experiment, the Severe Hazards Desk issued conditional intensity forecasts for tornadoes, destructive winds, and large hail.

In that experimental setting, the forecasts used categories to indicate whether significant severe weather was unlikely, possible, or expected. Participants in the Spring Experiment helped lay the groundwork for what would eventually become the Conditional Intensity approach now being added to official products.

After that initial exploration, the work continued. Since late 2021, SPC forecasters have been producing conditional intensity forecasts experimentally, using multiple severe weather events as opportunities to refine and improve how intensity is forecast.

According to SPC, this internal experiment ran for more than four years. Over that period, forecasters demonstrated skill in discriminating between the conditional intensities of different severe weather hazards. That performance, SPC says, is why the agency is ready to share the information officially through the Convective Outlook.

What hazards are covered

The Conditional Intensity concept, as described by SPC, is tied directly to the same core hazards that have long been central to Convective Outlooks. These include:

• Tornadoes, including the potential for intense or violent tornadoes in higher-intensity scenarios.
• Damaging winds, including the distinction between numerous reports and fewer but more significant impacts.
• Large hail, with attention to the potential for more extreme hail events where the environment supports them.

The emphasis is on providing an additional signal about severity—an attempt to more clearly communicate when the most dangerous forms of these hazards are more likely.

When the change will appear in official products

SPC has scheduled the Conditional Intensity addition to appear in the Day 1 Convective Outlook on March 3, 2026. The agency also notes a practical caveat: if a substantial severe weather threat exists on March 3, the implementation will be shifted to another day that same week.

That timing reflects a common operational reality in weather services—significant weather days can demand full attention, and product changes are sometimes better introduced when forecasters and users can focus on understanding the update rather than managing an active high-impact event.

How to interpret the update as a user

For many people, Convective Outlooks are already an important part of staying aware of potential severe weather. The addition of Conditional Intensity is meant to make those outlooks more informative, not more complicated. The key is to remember that the outlook is now designed to express two related but distinct ideas:

• Coverage potential: how likely severe hazards are to occur and how numerous they might be in an area.
• Intensity potential: how extreme the hazards could be if storms develop.

In some situations, these signals may align—an area could have both higher coverage probabilities and higher conditional intensity. In other situations, they may diverge, such as when storms are less likely overall but could be more violent if they form. SPC’s stated intent is to ensure that those “low probability, high intensity” scenarios can be conveyed more clearly than before.

Why this matters for public safety communication

SPC’s rationale for Conditional Intensity is rooted in impact. The agency points to high-end severe weather—such as intense and violent tornadoes—as producing the greatest loss of life and property. Communicating that potential earlier, and more explicitly, can support better preparation and decision-making.

By adding Conditional Intensity, SPC is aiming to provide guidance that helps users differentiate between severe weather setups that may be disruptive and those that may be more destructive. That distinction can shape how communities prepare, how resources are positioned, and how risk is communicated to the public.

Looking ahead

The addition of Conditional Intensity represents a notable evolution in how severe weather risk is summarized in the Day 1 Convective Outlook. Built from years of experimental forecasting and development—starting with the 2019 Spring Experiment and continuing through more than four years of internal testing—the change is designed to help forecasters communicate not only whether severe storms are possible, but whether the most extreme outcomes are more likely.

As the update rolls out in early March 2026, users of Convective Outlooks may see a clearer separation between the likelihood of storms and the potential severity of their impacts. The intent, as SPC describes it, is to improve the ability to flag the days and areas when violent weather is a greater concern—supporting earlier, more informed preparation when it matters most.